Fed policymakers set to comment on policy outlook after Chairman Powell sets the tone
- Fed Chairman Powell's cautious remarks on further policy easing lifted US yields.
- Markets await comments from Fed officials, while assessing the odds of a December rate cut.
- Fed Governor Cook and Governor Bowman are scheduled to delivers speeches on Wednesday.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell said in prepared remarks delivered at a Dallas event on November 14 that they don't need to be in a hurry to lower interest rates, citing ongoing economic growth, a solid job market and inflation that remains above the 2% target.
Powell further reiterated that the policy is still restrictive but argued that they need to move patiently and carefully to find the neutral rate. "If data let us go slower, that's a smart thing to do," he added.
US Treasury bond yields pushed higher following Powell's remarks and the US Dollar (USD) outperformed its rivals in the second half of the previous week. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 40% probability of the Fed leaving the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%-4.7% at the December policy meeting, up from a 17.5% chance a week ago.
Earlier in the week, Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmid stated that he believes inflation and employment are both heading toward desired levels. "Now is the time to dial back restrictiveness of policy," Schmid noted. Commenting on Donald Trump's proposed policies, "tariff and immigration policies will be relevant to the Fed if they impact employment and inflation," he said.
Later in the day, Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak about the US economic outlook and monetary policy at the University of Virginia Department of Economics in Charlottesville, Virginia. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will deliver a speech titled "Approach to Agency Policymaking" at the Forum Club of the Palm Beaches in West Palm Beach, Florida. Additionally, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will testify about the oversight of prudential regulators before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington DC. Finally, Boston Fed President Susan Collins will deliver remarks and participate in a conversation at an event organized by the Ford School in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.